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Study of how adiposity in pregnancy has an effect on outcomes (SHAPES): a cohort study


Study of how adiposity in pregnancy has an effect on outcomes (SHAPES): a cohort study

Funders: NIHR Career Development (Advanced) Fellowship (CDF-2018-11-ST2-011)

Study team: Dr Nicola Heslehurst (Newcastle University), Raya Vinogradov (Royal Victoria Infirmary), Dr Gina Nguyen (Newcastle University), Prof Luke Vale (Newcastle University, ARC NENC), Prof Dawn Teare (Newcastle University, ARC NENC), Dr Theophile Bigirumurame (Newcastle University, ARC NENC), Dr Louise Hayes (Newcastle University), Susan Lennie, Dr John Allotey (Birmingham University)

Project overview

Current guidelines use body mass index (BMI) to predict which women have increased risk of developing pregnancy complications and require additional care. BMI is an inaccurate measure to predict risk and leads to many women receiving inappropriate care, makes health outcomes worse and wastes NHS resources.

BMI does not assess where body fat is stored. When fat is stored in the upper body there is an increased risk of developing certain diseases. Someone with a ‘healthy’ BMI who stores fat around their waist can have a higher risk than someone with obesity who stores fat on their hips. Alternative measures can identify where body fat is stored (e.g. waist size, ultrasound examination). These are called adiposity measures.

The study aim is to identify the prognostic performance of single adiposity measures/multivariable models to estimate risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes. Specific objectives are:

  • To identify the prognostic value of single adiposity measures for predicting adverse maternal and foetal/neonatal outcomes (for each outcome of interest separately, and as a composite ‘high-risk care’ outcome)
  • To develop a prognostic model to investigate the effect of including multiple adiposity, socio-demographic and clinical predictors on the accuracy of predicting outcomes
  • To test the predictive performance of the prognostic measures/models using calibration, discrimination, and internal validation techniques

In this research, the enabling methodology (EM) theme members, Prof. Luke Vale, Prof Dawn Teare and Dr Theophile Bigirumurame will work in collaboration with the PI, Dr Nicola Heslehurst and the study team to identify alternative adiposity measures to BMI and develop a prognostic model.